Cataclysmic Global Failure May be Inevitable Unless We Act Quickly

WOOSTER, Ohio - Could the end of the world as we know it be closer than we think? Based on projections by J. Kenneth Smail, Professor Emeritus of Anthropology at Kenyon College, it would be hard to argue otherwise.

Smail, who describes himself as a physical anthropologist with an interest in human evolutionary biology, spoke to a gathering of students, faculty, staff, and area residents Tuesday night in Lean Lecture Room of Wishart Hall, where he talked about "Confronting the Inevitable? Global Population Reduction and Other Inconvenient Truths."

Citing dramatic increases in population, escalating reliance on finite supplies of fossil fuels, undeniable evidence of climate change, uncontrollable consumerism, unchecked pollution and other forms of waste, and the ongoing threat of political and social collapse through terrorism and unregulated immigration, Smail suggested that we could be headed for a "global synchronous failure."

"We are looking at a very different world than the one we have come to know," he said. "The system has become brittle and broken, and is on the verge of collapse."

Smail articulately addressed each of the challenges and offered some possible suggestions for amelioration. He began by charting the growth in population that could reach nine billion by as early as 2050. "We have to wonder what the earth's long-term sustainable carrying capacity is," he said. "One way to stabilize and eventually reduce the growth in population is to modestly limit reproduction, perhaps to two children per family. That will not be easy. It will require major adjustments in many parts of the world."

Smail then looked at the world's seemingly insatiable demand for oil, natural gas, and coal, and argued that changes must be made. "The demand is very soon going to exceed the supply," he said. "Production is outpacing discovery by a ratio of three to one. We are rapidly reaching our ecological limits."

Smail also touched on the potential consequences of climate change, rampant economic development, and global political chaos. "It may well be that we are on the cusp of a dramatic transformation in the way we live our lives," he said. "We don't have much time. We have to act quickly."

While the consequences of inaction that Smail laid out are dire, he did offer some optimism if the United States and other countries can muster the political will to make difficult but necessary choices about how we expend our valuable resources. "We need an ethic of caring for the earth," he said. "That might make it possible to reverse these ominous trends."